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Cepea: Weather has favoured the 2018/19 crop, but future is still uncertain

prices

Favourable weather in Brazil has increased expectations for a good 2018/19 season, which may press down quotes in the international and domestic markets, says in its latest report Cepea – the economic research center at Esalq (“Luiz de Queiroz” College of Agriculture), USP (University of São Paulo), in Piracicaba.

On the other hand, uncertainties regarding the exact crop size and weather conditions in the coming months, which will directly affect the national and global coffee inventories, underpinned arabica type 6 prices at 450.00 BRL per 60-kilo bag in November.

The current weather conditions and the significant rain amount late last month helped coffee crops to develop. At Zona da Mata (MG), rains favored flower settlement and the fruitlets development.

Regarding robusta, it rained at the crops in late November as well, allowing fruitlets to settle in Espírito Santo.

However, the water reservoirs are low in that state. Thus, a larger rain amount will be necessary from December onward for the beans to develop and to recover the water volumes at reservoirs. In Bahia and Rondônia, the season has not had problems.

Prices

The CEPEA / ESALQ Index of arabica type 6, hard cup or better (delivered in São Paulo city), closed at 456.27 BRL (139.23 USD) per 60-kilo bag on November 30, 1.1% up compared to that on October 31.