Brazil’s coffee crop for 2015/16 will be in line with that achieved last year, but well down from 2013, following months of drought, the National Company of Food Supply, or Conab said Tuesday.
In its first estimate for domestic coffee output this year, Conab pegged the harvest at 44.11-46.61 million bags, little changed from the 2014 result.
The centre of the forecast range, at 45.36m bags, is just 20,000 bags above the Company’s estimate for last year’s crop of 45.34 million.
Last year’s total yield was down 7.7% compared to 2013 and well below initial forecasts.
Average productivity is estimated between 22.79 and 24.09 bags per hectare, compared to 23.29 bags per hectare in 2014/15. Planted area is marginally down to 2.256.501 hectares.
The field survey was led from December 1st to December 12th 2014 in Brazil’s main coffee regions (click to enlarge).
Conab forecast that Arabica production will come in at between 32.5 and 34.4 million bags, a rise of between 0.6% and 6.5%, thanks to a jump of at least 30% in output in the south eastern region of Zona de Mata (Minas Gerais) and a notable recovery in Parana, after last year’s steep drop in production due to winter frost and summer drought.
Conab added that the output of Conilon (Robusta), accounting for around a quarter of overall production, is expected to drop of 6.3%-10.9%, to 11.61-12.21 million bags.
This is mainly due to the drought that occurred in mid-to-late 2014 in Espirito Santo, the top Brazilian Robusta-growing state, which also suffered “intense cold” during the coffee tree flowering period.
In Brazil’s biggest coffee state of Minas Gerais, production is estimated at 22.709-23.973 million bags (+0.3%; +5.9%).
Espirito Santo is forecast to harvest 11.41-12.09 million bags (-10.9%; -5.6%).
Sao Paulo’s output is estimated between 4.19 and 4.4 million bags (-8.8%; -4.1%).
Bahia should produce between 2.35 and 2.49 million bags (-0.7; +5%); Rondonia between 1.58 e 1.67 million bags (+2.2%; +8.2%).
As already said, Parana is expected to boost its production to 1-1.1 million bags, up 79%-96% on year.