Brazil: Conab raises its official estimate for CY2025/26 by 2.4% to 56.54 million bags (+4.3%)

MILAN – CONAB has revised upwards by 2.4% its estimate for Brazil ‘s 2025/26 harvest, which ended last September. The National Supply Company (CONAB) is a public company under the Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Food Supply – MAPA. According to is fourth official estimate –released yesterday, Thursday 4 December 2025 – production reached 56.5 million bags, up 4.3% from 2024/25. This is Brazil’s third largest harvest ever, second only to those of 2018 and 2020.

This time, Conab has revised on the upside both Robusta and Arabica figures. Arabica production is now pegged at 35.7631 million bags, down 9.7% compared to 2024/25. Robusta production is estimated at a record 20.7722 million bags, up 42.1%.

While there was a slight decline (-1.2%) in productive area, to 1.85 million hectares, overall productivity increased by 5.5% to 30.4 bags/ha.

Arabica productivity fell by 8.4% to 24.1 bags/ha. Robusta productivity surged by 42.3% to almost 56 bags/ha.

Arabica

In addition to being affected by an off-year in the two-year production cycle, the Arabica crop was penalised by periods of drought and intense heat, which further reduced its potential.

Added to this, the area under production contracted by 1.5%, to 1.49 million hectares.

In Minas Gerais, the largest producing state, the Arabica harvest was 25.17 million bags, a decline of 9.2% compared to 2024/25. In São Paulo, the second-largest producer of Arabica coffee, production declined by 12.9% to 4.7 million.

In Espírito Santo, production fell by 18.2% to 3.289 million. Conversely, positive trends were seen in Bahia (+2.5%) and Paraná (+10.9%).

Robusta

In Espírito Santo, the largest Robusta producer, production of this variety increased by 43.8% to reach 14.2 million. Even more significant increases were seen in Bahia, where Robusta production grew by 68.7% to reach 3.29 million and productivity hit an impressive 70 bags/ha.

Growth was more modest in Rondônia, where production reached 2.32 million, marking a 10.8% increase on the previous year.

Below is a summary of Conab’s estimate (click on the table to enlarge)

Between January and October, Brazil exported around 34.2 million bags of coffee, which is a 17.8% decrease compared to the same period last year, according to data from the Ministry of Development, Industry, Trade and Services.

The decline is primarily attributable to the sharp reduction in domestic stocks following record shipments in 2024, when 50.5 million bags were shipped.