Wednesday 28 September 2022

Brazil: Conab cuts its estimate for CY 2022/23 to 50.4 million bags

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MILAN – In its third official report for this year, Brazil’s National Supply Company Conab cut Tuesday its estimate for the county’s 2022/23 coffee crop by over 3 million bags to 50.38 million 60-kg bags, from an estimate of 53.43 million bags issued in May.

The public company under the Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Food Supply cited the adverse weather conditions during the season, with drought and severe frost from June to September, followed by excessive rainfall between December and February.

Conab said that 2022 would technically have been an on-year in the crop’s biennial production cycle, but weather problems in 2021 carried over into this year and negatively affected production.

In the previous on-year, in 2020, Brazil harvested a record crop of 63.08 million bags.

Conab estimates Arabica coffee production at 32.41 million bags, down from the previous forecast’s 35.71 million bags. ConabThis marks a modest 3.1% year-on-year increase. On the other hand, Robusta production is expected to reach a record volume of almost 18 million bags, or a 10.3% increase over the previous season.

Planted area is estimated at 2.24 million hectares, marginally up on year (+0.6%). Approximately 1.82 million hectares are planted with Arabicas.

Overall productivity will increase a mere 3.7% to 27.4 bags per hectare.

Arabica yields are estimated at a disappointing level of 22.3 bags per hectare, slighty up on year (+1.8%).

Robusta yields will reach a whopping 46.2 bags per hectare, the highest level on record.

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