Sunday 25 February 2024

Brazil: Conab cuts its estimate for 2022/23 by 2.3m bags to 53.4m bags

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MILAN – In its second survey for 2022, Brazil’s National Supply Company (CONAB) cut its forecast for the country’s 2022/23 coffee crop by 2.3 million bags to 53.43 million bags – 12% up from last year, but 9.65 million bags down (-15.3%) from a record crop of 63.1 million bags reaped in 2020, the previous on-year in the biennial cycle.

Conab revised downwards its estimate for Arabica production by 3.1 million bags, while the forecast for the Robusta crop was raised by about 760,000 bags.

The adjustment reflects last year’s drought and frosts that affected coffee plants in the Arabica coffee belt, bringing yields down, says Conab in the report.

Arabica production is pegged at 35.71 million bags: 13.6% more from last year’s crop of 31.42 million bags, but 23.6% down from a record crop of 48.74 million bags in 2020.

Robusta production is expected to reach a new record-high of 17.72 million bags, up 8.7% on year, thanks to better productivity and expanded acreage.

Average productivity is expected to reach 29 bags per hectare, 10% up from 2021, but 13.4% lower than in 2020.

Arabica yields will reach 24.6 bags per hectare, up 12.1% from 2021, but well below productivity levels in 2020.

Robusta yields will surge to a new high of 45.55 bags per hectare.

The cultivated area is estimated at 2.2 million hectares, up 1.9 percent from 2021. The increase is expected both for the area allocated to plants in formation and those in production.

The area in formation should total approximately 401,200 hectares, while the crops in production are to cover over 1.84 million hectares, up 2.5 and 1.8 percent respectively.

The cultivated area for Arabica amounts to 1.82 million hectare (+1.5%). Robusta areas reach 425,800 hectares, of which 388,900 in production.


The state of Minas Gerais, Brazil’s largest Arabica producer, is expected to reap 24.8 million bags, up 12% from las year.

In Espirito Santo, the country’s largest Robusta producer, overall production is estimated at 16.46 million bags. Robusta production will reach an all-time high of 12.16 (+8.4%). Arabica production will surge by 45.9% to 4.3 million bags.

Sao Paulo will harvest 4.43 million bags of Arabica coffee (+10.6%).

Production in Bahia will total 3.65 million bags, of which 1.353 of Arabica (+10.1%) and 2.296 of Robusta (+2.5%).

Rondonia is forecast to reap 2.64 million bags of Robusta, a 16.7% increase over the previous season.

Production in Parana will fall by 36.9% to 552,900 bags due to adverse weather and an inversion in the biennial cycle.

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