MILAN – Tightening global supplies in the coming season are expected to lift Arabica prices to $1.25 per pound by the end of calendar 2019, according to nine traders and analysts polled by Reuters on Tuesday. This is almost 25% above Monday’s close of 100.20 cents per lb at ICE Arabica.
The performance of the Brazilian currency is also expected to continue influencing Arabica coffee futures.
The world coffee balance will see a deficit of 1 million 60-kg bags in coffee year 2019/20 according to the median forecast, versus estimates of a 4.25 million-bag surplus for 2018/19.
Respondents expect the 2019/20 crop for Brazil at a median 55 million bags, more or less in line with previous forecasts.
This is an 8.3% decline of about 8.3 percent from the record 2018/19 crop.
Robusta prices are seen to rise to $1,775 per tonne by the end of 2019, a 16 percent increase from Monday’s close, the poll also said.