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MILAN – Coffee futures took a downward turn yesterday, Tuesday 20 January 2026. The decline was more pronounced for Arabica: in New York, the contract for March delivery lost almost 2.5%, closing at 346.50 cents, the lowest level in a month (340.65 cents on 19 December). On Monday, 19 January, the ICE Arabica market was closed for the Martin Luther King Day holiday.
After posting slight gains on Monday (+$16), London also lost ground: the ICE Robusta contract for March delivery fell by 1.9%, ending the day at $3,941, the lowest level in the last eight days.
The weather continues to have a fundamental impact on coffee futures
In Brazil, The Weather Channel is forecasting daily rainfall throughout the week in Minas Gerais, the largest Arabica-producing state.
According to Marcelo Moreira, an analyst at Archer Consulting, rainfall in the production areas continues to be good and well distributed, which bodes well for the next harvest.
“With the 2026/27 harvest season set to begin at the end of April, I don’t think London will be able to climb to new highs in the short term,’ explains Moreira, quoted by NotÃcias AgrÃcolas.
Meanwhile, dry weather in Vietnam is favouring harvesting operations and putting further pressure on Robusta futures.
According to the latest data from the National Statistics Office, exports grew by 17.5% in the 2025 calendar year to reach 1.58 million tonnes, equivalent to 26.33 million bags.
According to the Coffee and Cocoa Association, production in 2025/26 could increase by 10% to almost 30.8 million bags.
Meanwhile, the National Institute for Economics and Finance, under the Ministry of Finance, predicts that the average export price of Vietnamese coffee will fall by 10-15% in 2026, settling between $4,800 and $5,200.
