Share your coffee stories with us by writing to info@comunicaffe.com.
PIRACICABA, SP, Brazil– Prices for Arabica coffee registered the highest levels of Cepea series (since 1999) in the beginning of 2025, reports CEPEA in its fortnightly analysis. The price average in February was at BRL 2,565.41 (US$461) per 60-kg bag (IGP-DI November/25). In the first quarter, the scenario has been complex. In spite of expectations of a slightly higher production in Brazil, the weather was heterogeneous.
The rainfall took a long time to be regular again in late 2024, but, still, conditions remained relatively favorable up to February and March. However, in this period, roughly 30 days of hot weather and low volume of rainfall affected the development of coffee beans in practically all major producing areas of arabica coffee.
This scenario has affected the final result of the crop, which totaled 56.5 million bags, according to Conab.
In the international scenario, several aspects had been favoring price rises, such as adjusted global inventories, expectations of smaller robusta coffee production in Vietnam and uncertainties about the performance of the crop in Brazil.
Despite the possible recovery in the production, the volume would still be insufficient to replenish world inventories. Moreover, the global demand was firm, dropping only in the middle of the year, when data from Abic (Brazilian Association of the Coffee Industry) indicated a decrease of coffee purchases by Brazilians.
Concerning the CEPEA/ESALQ Index for the arabica coffee type 6, delivered to São Paulo city, monthly price averages remained above BRL 2,000 (US$359.4) per bag in practically all year, except in July (harvesting peak).
However, prices, which had been pressed down by the brief supply increase, resumed moving up in late July, due to the US tariff on Brazilian products, with the additional 40% to the 10% tax already announced in April, totaling 50%. The extra tariff was eliminated in November, a scenario that boosted quotations, especially in a context of a decrease of shipments from Brazil to the United States and of a decrease of inventories in that country.
The adjusted coffee supply worldwide, especially of arábica, also sustained robusta quotations. Despite significant price oscillations throughout the year, values remained between BRL 1,300 and BRL 1,500 (US$233.6 – US$269.6) per bag in most part of 2025. The CEPEA/ESALQ Index for robusta type 6, screen 13, Espírito Santo, averaged BRL 2,001.42 per 60-kg bag in February, the highest of Cepea series (since 2001), in real terms.
The 2025/26 robusta coffee production is considered good, which led the total production in Brazil to surpass that verified in the crop before, since the arabica output was below the volume registered in 2024/25. The high supply of robusta coffee led prices to oscillate throughout the year, especially in July, when quotations were close to BRL 1,000 per bag, practically the half of that verified in February.
