Friday 01 March 2024

Coffee futures rebound strongly on near-record-low inventories both in London and New York

ICE-monitored arabica coffee inventories Tuesday fell to a 1-year low of 389,138 bags, close to the 23-year low registered at 382,695 bags on 3rd November 2022. ICE-monitored robusta coffee inventories were at 3,953 lots Tuesday, mildly above a record low for the contract

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MILAN – Arabica coffee futures prices in New York rebounded strongly yesterday on tight supply and near-record low certified stocks. The main contract for December delivery posted an 820-point gain to reach a one-week high of 167.30 cents per lb. Ice Robusta coffee futures for January delivery recovered from Monday’s lows and closed at $2366 a metric ton.

ICE-monitored arabica coffee inventories Tuesday fell to a 1-year low of 389,138 bags, close to the 23-year low registered at 382,695 bags on 3rd November 2022.

ICE-monitored robusta coffee inventories were at 3,953 lots Tuesday, slighlty above a record low for the contract of 3,374 lots recorded on August 31.

Dealers noted the front-month’s premium to the March contract in New York was widening due to the tightness of supplies.

Cecafe reported on October 11 that Brazil’s September Arabica coffee exports fell -20% year-on-year to 2.4 million bags, the lowest for that month in 6 years.

Dealers also said that the upcoming new crop in top Robusta producer Vietnam has helped cap gains in the London market.

However, Vietnam’s General Department of Customs reported Saturday that Vietnam coffee exports in the first nine months of this year (Jan-Sep) fell -9.5% year-on-year to 1.313 metric tons.

In early September, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development expected that Vietnam would export about 1.72 million tonnes of coffee this year, earning $4.2 billion. Vietnams coffee export turnover surpassed $4 billion for the first time in the calendar year 2022.

Meanwhile, The Indonesian government trade data from Sumatra, the leading coffee producing island in Indonesia, has reported that Robusta coffee exports for the month of September were 246,872 bags or 54.10% lower than the same month of 2022.

This brings Robusta coffee exports for the first half of the current April 2023 to March 2024 coffee year to 726,927 bags, or 35.39% decrease from the same period in the previous year.

As per the estimates, Indonesia is expected to produce approximately 8.50 million bags of Robusta coffee in the years 2023/24, a decrease of 16.50% compared to the previous year.

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