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MILAN – Arabica coffee futures rebounded strongly in the first trading session of the week. In New York, the contract for December delivery gained 3.3% yesterday, Monday, October 13, 2025, climbing back to 385.20 cents. London also rebounded, with the ICE Robusta’s the most active contract for January delivery closing up $76 at $4,467.
Fluctuating weather reports from Arabica-producing areas in Brazil, where the new crop is in its critical flowering phase, continues to cause significant price volatility. The impact of La Niña will also need to be monitored in the coming months.
Models indicate a more than 70% probability that the phenomenon will occur during the 2025-2026 boreal winter. It will be weak in intensity, so much so that it could already be subsiding by the beginning of spring. March 2026 could see a return to neutral ENSO conditions.
Further support comes from the increasingly low level of certified stocks in New York, which yesterday stood at 498,088 bags, falling below the psychological threshold of half a million bags for the first time in over a year and a half.
The latest Commitment of Traders report from the ICE Robusta market has seen the Speculative Managed Money Sector increase their net long position by 54.06% over the week to Tuesday 7th October 2025, to register a new net long position of 8.880 lots, or 1,480,000 bags. The COT for ICE Arabica is currently unavailable due to the US government shutdown.
Vietnamese coffee exports reached a value of nearly $ 6.98 billion in the first nine months of 2025 – a 61% increase over the same period last year, according to data from the Import-Export Department. In terms of volume, exports totalled 1.23 million tonnes, up 11.2% compared to a year ago.
Robusta coffee shipments accounted for the largest share of exports, reaching a value of $4.9 billion. This was followed by exports of processed coffee and Arabica coffee.
According to the powerful and influential Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association (Vicofa), the 50% tariffs recently imposed by Washington on imports of all Brazilian goods represent a significant opportunity to expand the market share of Vietnamese coffee in the United States.
Vicofa also pointed out that Vietnam is one of the few exporting countries ready to meet the standards of the new European regulations against deforestation.
