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MILAN — Arabica coffee futures rallied in yesterday’s session, Tuesday, Aug. 5, 2025. In New York, the main contract for September delivery gained a further 1,015 points (+3.5) to settle at 298.70 cents, with an intraday high of 299.60 cents. Updates from Somar Meteorologia show that Minas Gerais, Brazil’s top arabica-producing state, recorded just 31% of the normal amount of rainfall for this time of year last week, generating further tension.
Market participants are also monitoring weather models, which forecast a polar air mass passing over the Brazilian coffee belt later this week. This is expected to bring low temperatures and the risk of localised frost.
As previously reported, 50% U.S. tariffs on imports from Brazil come into effect today, Wednesday 6 August, and will also apply to coffee imports.
According to the respected Senior soft commodities analyst and independent consultant Judith Ganes, the fact the US left coffee out of an extensive exemption list of Brazilian products suggests that the Trump administration intends to use this commodity as a bargaining chip in its political quarrel with Brazil’s President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva.
Brazil’s Supreme Court justice Alexandre de Moraes was put under sanctions by the US on Wednesday, as part of an apparent push by Donald Trump to help his ally Bolsonaro escape punishment for allegedly masterminding an attempted coup after losing the 2022 election to Lula.
Trump slapped 50% tariff on Brazilian imports in response to what he called the “witch-hunt” against the far-right former president.
In London, the most traded contract for November delivery posted yesterday modest gains (+$21) to close at $3,359. The front month (September) closed in the red, down $9 from Monday.
The Robusta market was also affected by weather news, this time positive, coming from Vietnam, where recent rains have improved production prospects for the upcoming crop.
According to data from the National Statistics Office, Vietnam exported 1.05 million tonnes, or 17.5 million bags, of coffee in the first seven months of the 2025 calendar year, which is a 6.9% increase on the same period in 2024. Export earnings were around $6 billion, a 64.9% increase compared to last year. In July, exports totalled 103,000 tonnes, or 1.72 million bags, which is more than a third (34.6%) up on a year ago.
There is also good news on the Arabica front, from Colombia. According to the National Federation of Coffee Growers’ monthly data, production reached 1.37 million bags in July, a 19% increase on the same month last year.
This is the highest production figure for the month in 10 years, following three consecutive monthly declines. However, this increase is primarily due to unusual weather conditions in the first half of the year, with heavy rainfall delaying harvesting.
Exports also grew, reaching 1.15 million bags in July, up 12.5% from a year ago. In a post on X, Federation CEO Germán Bahamón wrote that production for the second half of the year is expected to reach 7.1 million bags.
