Share your coffee stories with us by writing to info@comunicaffe.com.
MILAN – Arabica coffee futures posted yesterday, Thursday 21 August, their seventh consecutive daily advance. December Arabica coffee gained a further 1,155 points (3.3%), closing at 365.00 cents – the highest level since the third decade of May. Robusta coffee futures also soared: in London, the most active contract for November delivery rose by 2.7% to settle at $4,520 — the highest level since late May.
Uncertainties regarding fundamentals, low stock levels and the fragile geopolitical situation continue to fuel market volatility. In Brazil, the damage caused by last week’s frosts is still being assessed.
However, the phenomenon only affected limited areas and is not expected to impact the 2025/26 harvest, which is now almost complete. Meanwhile, weather conditions have improved and temperatures are rising.
“This scenario, although positive for crop management and the completion of the harvest, increases the risk of fires and requires attention from producers to minimise environmental damage and crop losses,’ said Climatempo meteorologist Dayane Figueiredo, in an interview with Bloomberg.
Soon, the market’s attention will shift to the upcoming spring season, which will mark the beginning of the flowering of the new 2026/27 harvest.
Another source of tension on the weather front is the hurricane season in the Gulf of Mexico, which is now in full swing.
Hurricane Erin made its closest approach to US soil Wednesday night as it skirted just 200 miles from the Outer Banks, bringing high surf and dangerous rip currents to beaches along the East Coast.
Erin’s northeast turn away from the US began early Thursday and it was accelerating away from the coast as of Friday morning.
As I. & M. Smith observes, these storms are not usually damaging for the crop potential of Mexico and Central America, but any forecast reports may contribute to some degree of weather-related market volatility in the months to come.
Meanwhile, the global market continues to be disrupted and thrown off balance by the 50% US tariffs on Brazilian coffee imports.
Many American roasters have cancelled contracts or extended delivery terms in the hope that the tariffs will be lifted, while others are searching alternative suppliers in Central America, Peru or Mexico.
Fernando Berardo, Head of Commodities – Latam & Brazil at Barchart, points out that ICE Arabica prices have risen by more than 27% since the new tariffs came into force.
