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MILAN – Arabica coffee futures fell sharply in the last session of the week, with prices returning roughly to early 2026 levels. In New York, the contract for March delivery lost almost 4% on Friday 9 January, closing at 357.65 cents. After exceeding $4,000 on 6 January, March ICE Robusta coffee futures fell back into negative territory, with three consecutive sessions in the red, ending on Friday at $3,903, the lowest level since the start of the year.
Profit-taking on ICE Arabica was driven by weather forecasts from Brazil, with rain expected to return this week.
Further pressure came from the recovering dollar, with the DXY index at its highest level in four weeks.
The Brazilian weather remains an essential variable and reports from the production areas present, as always, different nuances. Trade sources paint a positive picture, despite some periods of drought in the coffee belt, and report a healthy crop development.
This view is corroborated by recent estimates from Safras & Mercado and StoneX, which forecast a 2026/27 harvest of around 71 million bags. Conab has not yet announced the date of release of its first official estimate for this year.
The recent deposition of President Nicolás Maduro has rekindled hopes for a revival of Venezuela’s once-thriving coffee industry.
But it will take time for the Venezuelan agriculture as a whole to recover. The policies of Hugo Chávez and then Maduro have had a devastating effect on the primary sector, leading to a structural decline that has lasted for over two decades.
Agrarian reforms and price controls have led to the abandonment of many farms, resulting in a significant drop in production and a growing dependence on imports.
Until 2000, Venezuela was self-sufficient in white corn, fruit, vegetables, coffee, cocoa and rice, with domestic production covering 70% of sugar consumption and 80% of beef and chicken meat consumption, according to USDA data.
From 2008 to 2021, production of cereals, sugars, vegetable fats and animal proteins has more than halved.
Returning to coffee, Venezuela was one of the world’s largest producers in the 19th century: today, Venezuelan production stands at just 600,000 bags.
According to Carlos Mera, head of agri commodity market research at Rabobank, the potential in the specialty sector is remarkable, but it is best not to get too excited about the real possibilities of a rapid recovery.
“Abandoned plantations could be reactivated, but this would take time, and it is still largely uncertain at the moment,” said Mera in an interview with Food Ingredients First. “Any foreign investment at the moment is out of the question. There is a blockade for the foreseeable future.”
However, there is already cause for optimism regarding fine cocoa, says the same source.
Venezuelan Criollo cacao is considered one of the best in the world. The country currently produces between 15,000 and 25,000 tonnes, accounting for less than 1% of global production, but a significant proportion of the fine cocoa market.
According to the International Cocoa Organization (ICCO), fine flavour cocoa accounts for around 12% of global exports, 90% of which come from Latin America. Venezuela’s cocoa exports have recently recovered, growing by almost 129% in 2024.
