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MILAN – Arabica coffee futures fell yesterday (Thursday 8 January), marking the first decline after three straight sessions of gains, which had brought prices to their highest levels in recent weeks on Wednesday (7 January). The ICE Arabica March contract lost 0.8% to close at 372.35 cents, pushed into negative territory by the strength of the greenback, with the dollar index at a four-week high.
Robusta coffee futures continued to decline slightly, with the main London contract losing 0.3% to settle at $3,928.
New updated data released by the National Federation of Coffee Growers indicate that Colombia produced 13.6 million bags of coffee during the 2025 calendar year, compared to 13.9 million in 2024.
This is the first annual decline, after three years of production growth, mainly due to excessive rainfall in the main production areas during the season.
December production fell sharply to 1.23 million bags, down 31% from 1.79 million in 2024. Production in the first quarter of 2025/26 was 3.707 million, down 24.3%.
Exports in the 2025 calendar year, on the other hand, grew to 13.1 million, compared to 12.3 million in 2024. However, shipments fell by 6% in the first three months of 2025/26 to 3.306 million bags.
The decline deepened last month, when exports fell by 20% to 1.04 million.
Production estimates for the entire 2025/26 season are around 13.5 million.
On the weather front, the U.S. Government’s National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Centre (CPC) forecasts that the La Niña phenomenon will prevail until the end of January.
ENSO-neutral conditions are expected to prevail thereafter. La Niña tipically brings very dry weather conditions to some regions of South America, while equatorial areas experience excessive rainfall, which can affect Southeast Asia.
