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MILAN – Arabica coffee futures fell slightly yesterday: in New York, the main contract for December delivery fell marginally (-0.15%) to close at 377.75 cents after reaching an daily high of 387.10 cents during trading. Initial gains were erased by a stronger dollar against the Brazilian real, that sparked profit-taking and long liquidation. On the other side of the pond, London was closed for the Summer bank holiday.
Meanwhile, StoneX’s came up with a new estimate for the 2025/26 Brazilian harvest, and the news is not good.
With harvesting almost complete, the American financial services company has reduced its production estimate for this year by 3.4%, compared a previous forecasts, due to a disappointing Arabica crop.
Brazilian production for 2025/26 is now pegged at 62.3 million bags, down 5.4% from the 2024/25 crop. This decline is due to a lower than expected Arabica harvest, now seen at 36.5 million bags, which is an 18.4% decrease compared to last year.
The Robusta harvest, on the other hand, reached a record-high of 25.8 million bags, up 21.9% on-year. Adverse weather conditions, particularly last year’s prolonged drought, have affected Arabica production more than expected. The opposite is true for Robusta, which also benefits from intensive irrigation.
The outlook is more positive for the next Arabica harvest (2026/27), with flowering expected to begin in approximately one month.
The rains that fell between November 2024 and March 2025 have reinvigorated the trees and the plants that produced less are expected to be back in an on-year in 2026.
As for the frosts that occurred in some areas of Minas Gerais this month, they will have a tangible but relatively limited impact (about 400,000 bags).
The outlook is also positive in Robusta-producing regions, where production potential is expected to be high for next year as well, also due to the expansion of cultivated areas.
