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MILAN – Arabica coffee futures at new four-week highs, while Robusta futures fall into negative territory. In yesterday’s session, Wednesday 7 January 2026, the main contract (March) in New York closed with a further slight increase (+0.4%), ending the day at 375.45 cents. The strengthening of the dollar against the real limited the gains. Meanwhile, ICE Robusta turned downwards, with the March contract on the London market falling 1.7% to $3,939.
Weather conditions in Brazil continue to affect Arabica prices, with below-average rainfall in some key regions of the coffee belt.
As Denis Garcia, a meteorologist at Meteored, explained in an interview with NotÃcias AgrÃcolas, rainfall is likely to decrease further in parts of the Southeast in the coming days, which could worsen crop conditions.
There are also concerns about the current political situation in South America. Colombia risks unsolicited interference from the US, whether economic, political or through another military operation.
This potential instability is driving up coffee prices, Rabobank said in a report.
In addition, the US military operation in Venezuela has drawn criticism from Brazilian President Lula and Colombian President Petro. If the (US-Brazil) relationship sours again, this could pose another risk to prices, the bank added.
Preliminary data indicates that Colombia’s coffee production in the 2025 calendar year totalled 13.4 million bags, a 4.1% decrease from 2024.
The decline was particularly pronounced in the final quarter of the year, with production falling by 29.5% compared to Q4 2024 — a period that had seen exceptionally good results.
The harvest of the world’s largest producer of washed Arabica coffee was affected by adverse weather conditions in the first half of 2025, with rainfall 50% above average having a negative impact on the flowering and the subsequent stages of crop development.
