MELBOURNE, Australia – The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) remains neutral. All climate models surveyed by the Bureau indicate the tropical Pacific Ocean is likely to stay ENSO-neutral for the rest of 2017.
Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the central tropical Pacific have cooled over the past fortnight, but remain slightly warmer than average, and well within the neutral range.
The 30-day Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) has been somewhat volatile over the past two months, but remains neutral.
Other indicators of ENSO, such as cloudiness near the Date Line and trade winds also remain at neutral levels.
The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is neutral. Two of the six climate models suggest positive IOD thresholds could be reached in the coming months but only one model maintains these values long enough to be considered a positive IOD event.
Positive IOD events are typically associated with below average winter and spring rainfall over central and southern Australia.
