MELBOURNE, Australia – The tropical Pacific Ocean is currently neutral, reports the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BOM). Most climate models indicate the Pacific is likely to remain ENSO neutral for the remainder of 2017.
This means the Bureau’s ENSO Outlook is currently INACTIVE, with neither El Niño nor La Niña expected to influence Australia’s climate this year.
Although the tropical Pacific Ocean is slightly warmer than usual, this warmth is within the ENSO neutral range. The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) has recently been negative due to higher than normal atmospheric pressure in the Australian region, but all other ENSO indicators are at neutral levels.
In the tropical Indian Ocean, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is also neutral, with no sign of either negative IOD or positive IOD present in the ocean or atmosphere. However, some climate models suggest a positive IOD could develop in the coming months. Positive IOD events are typically associated with below average winter and spring rainfall over central and southern Australia.
