Share your coffee stories with us by writing to info@comunicaffe.com.
MILAN – Two prominent players in the global coffee market, Rabobank and StoneX, expect a substantial rebalancing of global supply and demand starting in 2026/27, which will help bring coffee futures prices back to levels more in line with historical averages. It is important to note that, in both cases, these are potential assessments, which will have to take into account climate trends, but also geopolitical risk, to which markets appear increasingly exposed.
Rabobank expects bumper crops of coffee and cocoa next year, which could lead to substantial supply surpluses..
The Dutch bank forecasts a global coffee market surplus of 7–10 million bags in 2026/27, supported by a recovery in Brazil’s Arabica production.
Arabica futures prices are therefore expected to settle within the range of $2.50–$3.00. However, analysts warn that short term volatility will continue due to climate and geopolitical risks.
On the cocoa front, prices will continue the downward trend that began this year, driven down by an increase in global production and the current weakness in demand. In 2026/27, production could thus exceed demand by 403,000 tonnes, following a surplus of 328,000 tonnes in the current harvest year, with a strong production boost in Latin America and Indonesia.
Politics are also influencing and shaping global flows of agricultural goods and prices.
“Agriculture is no longer playing by supply-and-demand rules, it’s playing by geopolitical ones,” said Carlos Mera, who heads the Agri Commodities Markets team at Rabobank. “We are only at the beginning of the middle game.”
StoneX also anticipates a strong recovery in production in the coming year and expects a record crop in Brazil, where production in 2026/27 would rise to 70.7 million bags, up 13.5% on-year.
This would exceed the previous record of 67.6 million bags set in 2020/21, according to StoneX’s historical series. These figures are significantly higher than the official estimates from Conab.
However, the realisation of this scenario depends on weather conditions and other factors that may affect production, as StoneX analyst Fernando Maximiliano explained to Reuters.
Although recovering strongly, the harvest will still be below its maximum potential under ideal weather conditions.
According to StoneX, Arabica production will grow to 47.2 million, up 29.3% from 2025/26. Robusta production, on the other hand, will drop by 8.9% from this year’s record harvest, falling to 23.5 million.
In 2020/21, Brazil produced 47.6 million bags of Arabica and 20 million bags of Robusta. Production is set to rebound significantly across the major regions of Minas Gerais, beginning with Sul de Minas, where the harvest is expected to increase by 21.1% to 17.2 million bags.
However, production will continue to fall short of its full potential due to inconsistent rainfall during the flowering period.
Production in São Paulo will grow by as much as 75.6%, with the trees pruned last year returning to production and newly planted trees beginning to bear fruit.
The harvest in the state of Rondônia will grow by almost a third (+32%) to reach 3.3 million bags, thanks to favourable weather conditions and the expansion of productive areas.
On the other hand, the Robusta harvest in Espírito Santo – the largest producer of this variety – will decline by 15% to 16.3 million bags, due to crop stress and the resulting physiological decline after this year’s record production, agricultural practices and the negative impact of cold winds and rains during the critical flowering period.
A very abundant Brazilian harvest would allow stocks to begin to be replenished after a period – from 2021 to 2024 – marked by constant supply deficits, which have reduced global stocks by more than 22 million bags.
Coffee futures consolidated in negative territory yesterday, Thursday 13 November, after sharp declines on Wednesday. In New York, the ICE Arabica contract for March delivery lost 240 points, closing at 374.25 cents. In London, the contract for January delivery fell 0.5% to settle at $4,343.
