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MILAN – This time it is London that is pushing up coffee prices in New York: yesterday, Monday 22 September, ICE Robusta gained 3.5%, recovering part of the heavy losses suffered on Friday. The November contract thus rebounded to $4,280, $145 more than last week’s closing price. ICE Arabica followed suit posting some gains: the December contract rose to 367.35 cents, adding 85 points.
News from Vietnam prompted the reversal of the downward trend in London: weather models predict heavy rainfall until the end of the month in the Central Highlands, which could hurt cherries that are entering the final phase of development ahead of the harvest.
According to analysts’ and trade forecasts, Vietnam’s production in the 2025/26 season could reach its highest level in four years.
The opposite problem exists in Brazil, where much of the coffee belt continues to experience scarce rainfall, raising fears about next year’s flowering crop. According to Somar Meteorologia, Brazil’s largest Arabica coffee-growing area, Minas Gerais, received 10.5 mm of rain during the week ended September 20, only 73% of the historical average.
Since 2020, global coffee production has suffered from recurring weather problems, said Fernando Maximiliano, coffee-market intelligence manager at StoneX, told MarketWatch.
“Practically every year, there were droughts in different intensities, as well as frosts, heat waves, high temperatures and other climate extremes that affected coffee production — not only in Brazil, but also in other producing countries around the world.”
The “persistent supply shock” had already been fueling an inflationary process in the coffee market, Maximiliano added.
StoneX estimates that global coffee inventories were at around 36 million to 37 million bags in 2024, down from about 58 million to 59 million bags in 2020.
According to the European Coffee Federation (ECF), stocks of green coffee in major European coffee ports totalled 474,966 tonnes, equivalent to 7,916,100 bags, at the end of June 2025.
This figure represents a 6% increase on May, but a 5.9% decrease on June 2024. The data are supplied by warehousing and port organisations in Europe covering the ports of Antwerp, Hamburg, Le Havre, Barcelona, Trieste, Genoa, Napoli, Tallin, London, Felixstowe, and Bremen (partly).
The most significant increase was in stocks of Washed Arabica, which grew by 11.7% compared to May, reaching 140,882 tonnes or 2,348,033 bags. Robusta stocks increased by 4.5% to 193,274 tonnes, equivalent to 3,221,233 bags.
The increase in Natural Arabica volumes was more modest (2.7%), with stocks amounting to 140,810 tonnes or 2,346,833 bags. For comparison, stocks in European ports in June 2022 stood at 817,837 tonnes or 13,630,617 bags.
The ECF will release its next report on stocks at the end of the month.
