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Colombian production at 13.8m bags

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MILAN – USDA ‘s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) released on Thursday four new Semi-annual reports on coffee production and trade in Colombia, Vietnam, India and Indonesia. Gain Reports figures serve as a basis for compiling USDA ’s official estimates contained in the “Coffee: World Markets and Trade” biannual report published in June and December.

In marketing year (MY) 2021/22, USDA’s Office of Agricultural Affairs, Bogota, revised Colombian coffee production forecast is down to 13.8 million bags (1 bag = 60 kilograms) green bean equivalent (GBE), due to potentially heavy rains from the La Niña weather phenomena that is projected to materialize towards the end of 2021 and the beginning of 2022. Revised coffee exports are forecast to remain unchanged at 13.5 million bags GBE, motivated by high international prices, while revised coffee imports are forecast to increase to 1.7 million bags to satisfy increasing demand as a result of Colombia’s economic recovery. In MY 2020/21, Post’s revised production estimate is down from 14.3 to 13.4 million bags GBE, primarily due to supply chain disruption and lower yields from adverse weather conditions. Revised coffee exports are down to 13.0 million bags GBE as a consequence of road blockades and unrest from the 45-day national protests that took place in May and June 2021.

The Office of Agricultural Affairs, Hanoi, revised its forecast of Vietnam coffee production for marketing year 2021/2022 (MY21/22) up to 31.1 million bags, green bean equivalent (GBE), on improved weather conditions that supported yields. MY20/21 Vietnam coffee exports declined by 9 percent year-over-year to 24.77 million bags, according to Vietnam Customs. Post also revised the MY21/22 coffee export forecast down to 25.8 million bags considering on-going logistical difficulties. Post estimates MY20/21 stock at 3.81 million bags, and forecasts that MY21/22 stock will rise to 6.58 million bags due to high carry-over and potential higher production.

In Indonesia, USDA ‘s Office of Agricultural Affairs of Jakarta revised down slightly its estimate to 10.58 million (60 kilogram) bags in 2021/22 on lower yields due to unfavorable weather in northern Sumatera, as well as southern Sumatera’s experiencing an off-crop year. Green bean exports are also revised down 9 percent to 5.9 million bags in 2021/22 on weaker than expected demand and supply chain issues. However, domestic consumption is revised up seven percent due to the easing of social distancing restrictions on cafes and restaurants.

In India, the Office of Agricultural Affairs, New Delhi, estimates marketing year (MY) 2021/22 coffee production (October/September) at 5.53 million 60-kilogram bags. Unseasonal rains in November are expected to negatively impact Arabica crop yields and delay the harvest by at least two weeks, which will be offset by higher yields of Robusta leading to a six percent increase in overall coffee yields. Indian coffee prices continue to increase as rising export demand is stymied by shipping congestion/delays, limited container availability, and higher freight costs. Domestic consumption is estimated higher at 1.2 million 60-kilogram bags as growing home consumption of coffee is supported by a gradual reopening of restaurants, cafes, and the rest of the hospitality sector.