Tuesday 28 March 2023

Lower supply, due to crop failure, limits Brazil’s exports in the 2022/23 season, reports Cepea

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SAO PAULO, Brazil – The crop failure in Brazil in the 2022/23 season, due to weather issues (frosts and excessive rains), added to the fact that domestic prices have been higher than export values have been limiting Brazilian coffee exports in the current season. On the other hand, in the 2023/24 season, agents believe exports will recover.

In February, Brazil exported 2.4 million bags of coffee, against 3.6 million in Feb/22, a decrease of 33.3%, according to data from Cecafé. In the current season (Jul/22 – Feb/23), shipments have totaled 24.6 million bags, 7.8% down from the 26.7 million exported in the same period of the 21/22 season.

However, sales of the remaining beans have been low in the national spot market too. According to agents consulted by Cepea, farmers intend to sell coffee only when prices rise or when in need for cash flow.

Prices have been fluctuating widely, keeping liquidity low in Brazil. On March 15th, the CEPEA/ESALQ Index for arabica coffee type 6, delivered to São Paulo city, closed at BRL 1,087.87 (USD 205.49)/60-kilo bag, 6.3% lower than that on Feb. 28th.

Arabica crops

Rainfall is still high in the Brazilian regions that produce arabica coffee crops, but less frequent, allowing crop activities to continue. Agents consulted by Cepea say that crops are developing well, but the harvest may still decrease.

Robusta prices

Robusta prices are fading in Brazil, pressed down by international devaluations and the disinterest of purchasers and sellers in closing deals.

On March 15th, the CEPEA/ESALQ Index (Espírito Santo) for the robusta coffee type 6, screen 13, closed at BRL 609.35 (USD 115.10)/60-kilo bag, 12.2% lower than that on Feb. 28th and the lowest nominal level since Nov/22.

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