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MILAN – According to data contained in the latest Coffee Market Report from the International Coffee Organization (ICO), world coffee exports remained stable in March. In fact, exports of all forms of coffee totalled 13 million bags, a slight increase of 0.6% compared to the same month last year. Arabica shipments showed a positive trend, reaching a total of 7.879 million bags (+6.4%).
Exports of Colombian Milds increased by almost a third (24.1%) to reach 1.432 million bags. Other Milds also saw an increase in volumes (+9.7%), amounting to 2.655 million. Brazilian Naturals fell slightly to 3.792 million (-1.1%).
Robusta exports continued to decline, amounting to 5.122 million, or 7.1% less than a year ago.
On the other hand, exports of all forms of coffee fell by 2.1% to 67.731 million in the first half of CY 2024/25 (October–March).
Arabica exports increased by 3.3% to 42.298 million. Colombians Milds saw a strong leap forward (+20.4%), soaring to 8.056 million. Exports of Brazilian Naturals increased to 23.776 million (+2.8%). Conversely, there was a negative trend for Other Milds, which fell by 5.9% to 10.466 million.
Robusta exports were 10% down to 25.433 million, compared to 28.263 million in the first half of CY 2023/24.
In April, the ICO Composite Indicator Price (I-CIP) marked the second consecutive monthly decrease (-3.5%) to reach an average of 335.76 cents. The most pronounced declines were seen in Robustas (-4.4%) and the London indicator (-4.8%). On the Arabica side, Colombian Milds, Other Milds and Brazilian Naturals fell by 2.7%, 2.8% and 3.6% respectively. The New York indicator was down by 3.2%.
It is interesting to observe the development of the daily price, which fluctuated between a low of 308.93 cents on 8 April (the lowest since 21 January) and a peak of 357.21 cents on 28 April. This happened due to specific market fundamentals, but was also the consequence of the uncertainty in the global economic and geopolitical landscape.
The ICO report particularly emphasises the fact the recovery in prices since 9 April was partly triggered by Trump Administration’s decision to suspend tariffs for 90 days, which had a positive impact on the market mood.
This suggest that the coffee price is searching for direction, with both bullish and bearish factors affecting the market, although the former appears to have the upper hand, says the report.
The Ico Report summarises the main bullish and bearish factors currently affecting the coffee markets as follows:
Bullish factors:
- Cooxupé, Brazil’s largest arabica coffee co-operative, said high temperatures and below-normal rainfall in Brazil last month would negatively affect coffee yields this year.
- Optimism about declining inflation – with world inflation rate declining from 5.7% in 2024 to 4.3% and 3.6% in 2025 and 2026 respectively. Furthermore, a projected GDP recovery, leading to a sustained and projected increase in demand (Figure A below), has been supporting the I-CIP.
- Coffee remains a low elasticity commodity, with demand not fluctuating significantly, thanks to a large range of coffee products at several price points available, which helps support high prices.
- Market optimism on a tariff exemption, as prices could continue growing without fearing that demand may be impacted.
- Inverted futures market, where delivery of coffee today comes at a premium.
- Low and at times negative (from 1 to 3 and from 11 to 23 April) Colombian Milds – Other Milds differentials, suggesting an undersupply of Other Milds in the market.
Bearish factors:
- Weakening demand due to the potential increase in retail coffee prices, resulting from higher customs costs as reciprocal tariffs remains.
- The addition of Vietnam as a Deliverable Origin on the Coffee “C”® Futures Contract as of 1 April, with a lot consisting of 37,500 pounds of washed arabica coffee, at a differential of -600 points. The greater availability of commercial coffee in destination ports could help alleviate any supply fears.
