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Conab sees Brazil′s production at 61.63m bags, slightly below the record crop of 2018

Cepea coffee output

MILAN — In its second forecast issued yesterday, the National Supply Company of the Brazilian government (Conab) pegged Brazil’s coffee production for 2020/21 at 61.63 million bags, up 25% on year, but slightly below the record crop of 61.66 million bags recorded in 2018/19.

Conab’s first estimate, released in January, was in a range between 57.15 and 62.02 million bags. The May estimate was cancelled due to the pandemic, which made the field survey impossible. A further forecast will be issued in December.

Arabica production is seen this time at 47.38 million bags, a 38.1% increase over 2019, which is attributable to the on-year in the biannual cycle as well as to favourable weather conditions during the season.

Robusta production suffered a 5.1% decline from last year’s historic high of 15 million bags to 14.25 million bags, mostly due to unfavourable weather conditions in Espírito Santo, the largest producer of this coffee variety.

Brazil’s coffee area increased 1.4% from 2019 to 2020, said Conab, to 2.16 million hectares, as around 300,000 hectares of coffee trees planted a couple of years ago came to production.

Arabica’s coffee area increased by 1.6% to 1.76 million hectares. The area under Robusta cultivation saw a 0.8% expansion to 402,000 hectares.

Productivity rose to 32.7 bags per hectare, a 20.2% increase from last year.

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