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MILAN – Conab has revised its forecast and is now more optimistic about this year’s production in Brazil, which is even expected to be higher than last year, despite the adverse weather and the Arabica “off-year”. In its second official estimate for the 2025/26 crop year – presented to the press yesterday morning, Tuesday 6 May 2025 – the National Supply Company (Conab) – an entity under the Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Food Supply (MAPA) – pegs the upcoming crop at 55.7 million bags, a 2.7% increase compared to 2024/25, despite a 1.4% reduction in the area in production to 1.86 million hectares.
The national average coffee productivity is estimated at 30 bags/ha, which still represents a growth of 4.1% above the previous harvest.
This second estimate is almost 3.9 million higher than the first one, issued in January, which forecast a production of 51.81 million.
Conab’s upward revision is quite surprising given the predominantly negative sentiment that had accompanied private sector and trade analysts’ assessments in recent weeks.
The outlook also seems to have improved on the Arabica front, where the occurrence of a negative year in the biennial cycle and unfavourable weather patterns had led to pessimism.
Robusta producers are bracing for a bumper crop, with production and productivity at unprecedented levels, despite a slight decline in the area in production (-0.3%).
For Arabica, the estimate points to a production of 36.98 million bags, down 6.6% from last year. The average productivity will be 24.9 bags/ha (-5.1%).
The production area will be slightly down (-1.6%), to 1.48 million hectares, also due to pruning.
After last year’s long drought, the return of the rains in the last part of 2024 had led to moderate optimism, despite the irreversible damage to the Arabica crops caused by the prolonged lack of rainfall.
The situation became worrisome again in February, with a further period of drought and high temperatures, which favoured the proliferation of diseases and pests. Since mid-March, weather conditions have improved and the worst has been averted.
Robusta production will increase by 27.9% to a whopping 18.698 million bags: an unprecedented figure in Conab’s historical series, consolidating Brazil’s position also as the world’s second largest producer of Robusta.
According to Conab, Robusta productivity will soar from 39.2 bags/ha in the 2024/25 crop year to an outstanding 50.4 bags/ha (+28.3%). Unlike last year, weather conditions have been good this year.
The waning influence of the El Niño phenomenon contributed to a more regular rainfall regime, with rains within historical averages.
Below is a summary of the Conab estimate followed by a breakdown of Arabica and Robusta production
Among Brazil’s top producing states, only Minas Gerais will see a decline, with Conab forecasting a 7.1% drop to 26.1 million bags, mostly Arabica.
Productivity will reach 24.3 bags/ha (-4.7%), while the cultivated area under will be 2.5% smaller. Negative trends were recorded in all the main production areas, starting with Sul e Centro-Oeste (-8.3%).
In Espírito Santo, production will rise to 16.389 million (+18.2%) thanks to a record Robusta crop, which will increase by a third (+33.1%) to almost 13.1 million bags, while the Arabica crop will fall by 18.2% to 3.3 million bags, mainly due to negative cyclical factors.
The off-year will not prevent São Paulo from recording a slight increase in production (+1.3%) to 5.52 million, thanks to an increase in the area under cultivation (+5.3%), which will compensate for the slight fall in productivity (-3.8%).
Overall production is seen up by 20% in Bahia, with a crop estimated by Conab at 3.68 million. Robusta production will reach 2.5 million (+28.2%). Arabica production will increase by 5.6% to 1.18 million, although productivity will remain relatively low.
In Rondônia (Robusta), productivity will be close to 55 bags/ha, with a further 8.9% increase in the crop to 2.28 million, says Conab.
