MILAN – In its fourth official survey for crop year 2024/25 – released yesterday afternoon, Tuesday 21 January 2025 – Brazil’s National Supply Company (CONAB) cut its 2024/25 coffee production estimate by almost 600,000 bags to 54.2 million bags. A downward revision – widely expected – due to a more negative impact from weather factors than initially estimated. ‘Over the past four years, weather conditions have proved challenging for the coffee sector – including frosts, droughts and high temperatures,’ writes CONAB in the presentation.
The adverse weather conditions in the past year and at the end of 2023 have impacted some important production areas negatively affecting crop productivity. Hence, Conab’s decision to further lower the estimate to 54.2 million: 1.6% less than in the 2023/24 crop year.
The coffee growing area reached 2.23 million hectares, in line with the previous year. The area under production rose slightly (+0.4%), to 1.88 million ha, while the area under formation showed a slight reduction (-2.2%), to 353,600 ha.
Overall productivity is, in turn, down by 1.9%, to 28.8 bags/ha. Arabica production was 39.6 million, up 1.8% year-on-year, with a very slight increase in productivity (+0.2%). This result can only be considered partially positive, since 2024/25 was in theory a positive year in the two-year cycle.
The main negative factor affecting the Arabica performance was a disappointing year in Minas Gerais, the largest Arabica-producing state, where production was even lower than in 2023/24.
It was definitely a negative year for Robustas (conilon): tha harvest was 9.6% down, to 14.62 million bags, as a result of the aforementioned reduction in acreage, as well as a drop in productivity (-5.9%), which nevertheless remains very high (39.2 bags/ha).
Tha table below shows CONAB ‘s estimate, followed by a breakdown of Arabica and Robusta production
Minas Gerais is the only state (along with Paraná, which, however, plays a marginal role) where the Arabica crop is declining.
Production was down overall by 3.1%, to 28.097 million bags, despite a 1.9% expansion in production areas, matched by a 5% decrease in productivity, to 25.5 bags/ha.
This negative year is attributable entirely to the poor performance of Triângulo, Alto Paranaiba and Noroeste, where production dropped to 5.36 million bags, from 7.59 million in 2023/24. Sul and Centro-Oeste were stable (-0.2%), at 13.49 million. Zona da Mata, Rio Doce and Central grew strongly (+19.1%).
A slight increases was also seen in Norte, Jequitinhonha and Mucuri (+0.9%). Drought and heat waves in the spring led to irregular flowering and uneven early development of the new crop.
The situation improved from the second half of December, with regular and adequate rainfall. However, from April onward, there was a new decline in rainfall, which affected the final stage of ripening, with negative consequences on the size and quality of the beans. In Espírito Santo, production grew by 6.5%, to 13.865 million bags, thanks to the positive cycle of the Arabica crop, which rose a whopping 40.7%, to 4.022 million.
On the other hand, drought and heat in the fourth quarter of 2023 led to a drop in the Robusta crop (-3.1%) to 9.843 million, from over 10.1 million in 2023. In São Paulo (100% Arabica) production rose to 5.44 million (+8.2%), but was below initial expectations. In Bahia, production fell by almost 10% to 3.067 million, according to Conab.
There was a slight increase (+0.8%) in the Arabica crop, which once again exceeded 1.1 million, while Robusta production fell sharply (-14.8%) to 1.95 million.
However, the biggest drop – almost one million bags – was recorded in Rondônia (-31.2%), where production fell to just under 2.1 million bags, not because of a fall in productivity, which was actually up (to the exceptional figure of 52.6 bags/ha), but due to a decrease of more than a third (-34.3%) in production area.
