Share your coffee stories with us by writing to info@comunicaffe.com.
MILAN – After Wednesday’s consolidation, coffee prices returned to a downward trend. On Thursday, 22 May 2025, both markets sold off sharply, falling to their lowest levels in over a month. In New York, July Arabica coffee fell by almost 2.6% to 360.75 cents per pound, marking the lowest price for the main contract since 14 April. In London, the July contract dropped 2.4%, closing at $4,787 per pound — its lowest level since 9 April.
Improved harvest prospects in the main producing countries and the partial replenishment of certified stocks in both markets continue to put pressure on prices, although the global scenario remains largely unchanged.
Escritório Carvalhaes notes that even the most optimistic scenarios for the upcoming Brazilian harvest suggest that the world coffee market will continue to be characterised in 2025/26 by a precarious balance between supply and demand.
Coffee prices eased in early April, following record nominal highs earlier this year, reports the World Bank in its latest Commodity Markets Outlook.
Arabica surged to $9/kg in February-March, while Robusta approached $6/kg. In 2025Q1 (q/q), Arabica rose by 26%—nearly doubling from a year earlier— while Robusta gained 12%, marking a two thirds increase year-on-year.
Global coffee production, which rose to about 170 million bags in 2023-24, is expected to rise further, to 173 million bags in 2024-25, but remain below 2020-21 levels.
The lingering effects of the 2021-22 weather-related production shortfall, coupled with steady demand growth, have continued to drive prices higher.
Arabica prices are projected to climb by more than 50% in 2025 (y/y)—assuming prices remain broadly stable for the rest of the year—before declining by 15% in 2026, in response to higher production expected by Colombia, the world’s second largest Arabica producer. Robusta prices are expected to rise by nearly 25 percent in 2025 before falling by 9% next year.
This baseline forecast is subject to significant risks, particularly the upside risk that low rainfall and above-average temperatures earlier in the year could negatively affect the 2025/26 harvest in Brazil, the world’s leading coffee producer, concludes the World Bank.
