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MILAN – A partial improvement in the production outlook in the major exporting countries combined with lingering fears of a slowdown in demand helped push coffee futures down again in the final session of the week. In New York, the main contract for July delivery lost 935 points (2.5%) on Friday 16 May, closing at 365.65 cents — 5.7% lower than the previous Friday.
In London, July ICE Robusta coffee futures fell by $106 (2.1%) to settle at $4,865 — 6.9% lower than at the end of the previous week.
According to Safras and Mercado’s latest weekly report, 7% of the potential new crop had been reaped by 13 May, which is an increase of 5 percentage points from the previous week.
The Arabica harvest was 4% complete, compared to 7% last year and an average of 6% over the past five years. Robusta was 11% complete compared to 16% last year and an average of 17% over the past five years.
Rain hampered harvest operations in the Robusta areas of the states of Espírito Santo, Bahia and Rondônia, and in the Arabica region of Matas de Minas.
The Arabica harvest is behind last year’s, partly due to slower ripening, with most of the fruit still ‘very green’.
Brazil’s coffee production in 2025/26 is projected by Safras & Mercato at 65.51 mln bags, down 1% from the previous crop. Arabica should fall 11%, while conillon/robusta should register an increase of 20%.
This forecast is almost 5% higher than a previous estimate released a few months ago. As with Conab, the upward revision is due to improved weather conditions since the end of March, with rains returning after weeks of summer drought.
This impression still needs to be confirmed by the harvest and processing progress, says Safras & Mercado.
“There is uncertainty about the effect of the last heat wave on grain production, which occurred between February and March, and its impacts should only become more evident in the final phase of processing.
In addition, doubts persist about the effects of the long drought associated with temperatures well above average, which affected coffee crops — especially in the regions of São Paulo Sul and Cerrado Mineiro — with emphasis on the impact of excessively high temperatures.
The harvest progress should provide clearer answers on these points,” concludes the analyst.
