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MILAN – Coffee futures posted new gains yesterday, Thursday 5 June 2025, with both markets strengthening their upward trend. In New York, the contract for July delivery increased by almost 4%, closing at 359.75 cents — up by over 5.5% from Tuesday’s low of 340.85 cents. In London, the most active contract for September delivery added $100 (2.3%) to reach $4,445.
Uncertainty over the production outlook continued to dominate the coffee futures markets, fuelling volatility. The daily trend was also affected by the appreciation of the Brazilian currency, which was at its highest level against the dollar in seven and a half months yesterday.
According to Marcelo Moreira, an analyst at Archer Consulting, ICE Arabica is currently oversold, and a further correction in positive territory could be seen in coffee futures with the July contract, reaching 370–380 cents— especially if a cold front materialises in the Brazilian coffee belt in the coming weeks, resulting in a risk of frost.
Other analysts are highlighting the upcoming technical front-month expiry dates, which could generate further volatility.
Turning to the fundamentals, the most recent Gain reports on the main coffee-producing countries suggest a possible decline in global Arabica production in 2025/26, providing bullish cues.
In fact, figures from USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service predict a 2.8 million bag drop in Arabica production in Brazil and a 700 thousand bag drop in Colombia, which will only be partly offset by increased production in Ethiopia (+930 thousand bags), Honduras (+280 thousand bags) and Peru (+318 thousand bags).
Conversely, the outlook for Robusta is very positive, with potential increases in harvests of 2 million bags in Vietnam, 3.1 million bags in Brazil, 500 thousand bags in Indonesia, and 145 thousand bags in Uganda in 2025/26.
It is important to note that these figures are preliminary estimates and will need to be refined in the coming months. USDA will provide an initial outlook for the upcoming coffee year in the first of its two biannual “Coffee: World Markets and Trade” reports, due to be released on 25 June.
Meanwhile, Colombia’s production fell for the second consecutive month. In May, the harvest was 819,000 bags, which is 27% less than a year ago.
The harvest in southern Colombia in the first half of the year is clearly delayed due to the persistent rains that have affected the country, wrote Germán Alberto Bahamón Jaramillo, Director General of the National Federation of Coffee Producers of Colombia, on X.
He added, “This climatic condition has slowed down the ripening of the fruit, resulting in an estimated six-week delay. As a result, coffee production in May registered a significant decrease.”
Although production is declining, it is still significantly higher than in April, when it stood at just 703,000 bags.
The trend since the beginning of the year remains positive: between January and May, production totalled 5.3 million bags, marking a 14% increase compared to the first five months of 2024. Over the past 12 months, production reached the impressive volume of 14.6 million bags.
Exports in May were also slightly down, at 910 thousand bags (-3%). In the first five months of the year, exports grew by 12% to reach 5.3 million. Over the past 12 months, shipments totalled 12.9 million, marking a 17% increase compared to the preceding period.
Bahamón emphasised that the weather pattern observed so far in 2025 could negatively impact the main harvest in the second half of the year due to the reduced flowering in February.
