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MILAN – In October, the first month of the new 2025/26 coffee year, coffee futures prices saw high volatility and erratic trends on both terminals. New York recorded its lowest close on 10 October, when the December contract slipped to 373.05 cents, approaching the lows of late September.
However, fluctuating news from Brazilian weather reports during the critical stages of the new crop’s flowering, combined with geopolitical tensions, produced a powerful rebound from the following day.
Within two sessions, the benchmark returned above the $4 threshold, reaching an intraday high of 405.25 cents on 14 October, but settling at 399.65 cents: 3.8% above the previous day’s close.
Prices fell slightly over the next two days, but a new upward trend began on 17 October, bringing New York close to its February highs in just four sessions. This led to a monthly peak of 420.85 cents on 22 October.
Despite ongoing tensions over fundamentals, the following days saw substantial profit-taking, aided by the easing of tensions between Brazil and the US, with the successful outcome of the Trump-Lula meeting, which took place on Sunday 26 October, on the sidelines of the ASEAN summit in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia.
The decline continued into the final week of the month: on Monday 27 October, the main contract lost a further 1,290 points (-3.2%), closing at 390.10 cents.
The fourth consecutive session in the red was on 28 October, at 387.90 cents. The last three sessions of October saw a slight recovery, and so the month ended at 392.05 cents, with a minimal gain (just one tick) on 31 October.
Concerns about Tropical Storm Fengshen passing over Vietnam’s coffee-growing areas helped push up the January ICE Robusta contract to a high of $4,694 on 22 October. On the same day, the nearby expiry (November) closed at $4,739.
However, the lifting of the weather alert deflated the bubble in the following days and prices fell, with the benchmark landing at $4,437 on 27 October.
Three consecutive increases resulted in gains of 4.6%, bringing the main contract back to $4,641 on 30 October. Finally, the last session of the month saw a 2.18% decline to $4,540.
Low inventory levels continue to support prices. In New York, certified stocks fell to a new low of 431,728 bags on Friday 31st.
The latest Commitment of Traders report from the ICE Robusta has seen the Speculative Managed Money Sector marginally increased their net long position by 3.38% over the week of trade to Tuesday 28th October 2025 to register a new net long position of 13,882 lots, which is the equivalent of 2,313,667 bags.
The COT of the Ice Arabica remains unavailable due to the US Government shutdown.
