MILAN – Coffee futures prices closed yesterday, Tuesday 18 March 2025, virtually unchanged from the previous session. In New York, the main contract gained 40 points to settle at 383.80 cents. In London, the benchmark fell slightly (-$5) to $5,469.
The latest weather updates from Brazil indicate a resumption of rainfall and are likely to continue until the end of the month. The Robusta harvest will begin in the coming weeks.
The outlook is good: production estimates for this year range from 17.13 million (+17.2%) in the official Conab estimate (17.6 million according to Ibge), to 24-26 million in the more optimistic private sector forecasts.
The Arabica harvest traditionally starts later, around mid-year, and peaks around July. Conab forecasts production at 34.68 million for the most valuable variety, down 12.4% on last year (35.6 million, according to Ibge). However, industry forecasts are around 38-40 million.
Markets will continue to closely monitor weather conditions in the coming months, which will be crucial to the final development of the Arabica crop.
Meanwhile, the latest update from Safras&Mercado indicates that Brazilian producers have sold 93% of the 2024/25 crop, estimated by the Brazilian analyst at 66.04 million bags. The figure far exceeds that of last year, when just 84% of the harvest was sold in the same period.
In addition to domestic consumption, sales are also being boosted by the very high level of exports, which reached an all-time high 33,452,016 bags in the first eight months of the current crop year (July 2024 – February 2025): 8.8% more than in the same period last year and more than a million bags more than the previous record-high set in the 2020/21 crop year.
Recent data from Abic meanwhile estimates Brazil’s domestic consumption in the period November 2023 – October 2024 at 20.9 million bags: 1.1% more than in the previous 12 months.
It should be noted that this increase comes against a backdrop of a sharp rises in consumer prices, which increased by 44% in calendar year 2024 and are expected to grow by a further 25% in the coming months.
