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MILAN – There were further declines in the coffee futures markets yesterday, Monday 8 December. The contract for March delivery of the ICE Arabica fell by 2.3% to close at 366.20 cents, the lowest level for the main contract since September. London recorded its sixth consecutive session in the red. The Ice Robusta contract for January delivery lost 1.8%, ending the first session of the new week at $4,218, at a 2.25-month low.
The most traded contract for March delivery fell 2.1% to close at $4,092. New reports from Brazil – particularly Conab’s fourth official estimate, which revised the 2025/26 crop figures upwards – have contributed to putting pressure on prices.
Added to this is positive news from Vietnam, where the Customs Authority announced that coffee exports in November increased by 39.1% compared to the same month last year, reaching 1,466,667 bags.
This brings the total for the first two months of the 2025/26 coffee year to 2,633,334 bags, or a 51.9% increase over the same period last year.
Vietnam‘s coffee production is expected to grow by 10% in 2024/25, said Nguyen Nam Hai, president of the Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association (Vicofa), on Tuesday 2 December, maintaining a previous estimate.
The Association is usually conservative in its estimates. Harvesting operations have been completed by about 10% so far.
There are fears that the wave of extreme weather and flooding that has battered Vietnam in recent weeks, also affecting Dak Lak and Gia Lai – the country’s two largest production areas – could negatively impact this year’s harvest in terms of quantity and quality.
“The harvest will peak in December, and additional storms or heavy rains this month could have a significant impact,” he warned. “We will reassess output after that.”
Robusta exports, on the other hand, are set to grow by 7% to 1.6 million tonnes or 26.67 million bags, said Le Duc Huy, president of Simexco Daklak Ltd., in an interview.
He estimates this year’s production in Vietnam (Arabica + Robusta) to be at 1.9 million tonnes or 31.67 million bags.
According to Huy, the quality of the harvest should remain good, since producers invested in improved machines for better bean drying and more reliable quality.
