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MILAN – It was a volatile week for the coffee futures markets with both exchanges hitting new lows. In New York, the main contract (September) closed the week on Friday 27 June at 303.75 cents, the lowest level since 3 December 2024. During trading, the contract fell below the $3 mark, which had not happened since 4 December. In London, the September contract closed Wednesday, 25 June, at $3,524, a record low for Ice Robusta’s benchmark price since 20 May 2024.
During trading, the contract fell below the $3,500 mark (with an intraday low of $3,490 and a close of $3,524), something that had not occurred since 21 May last year.
This all happened in a week that was initially marked by a sudden spike in coffee futures prices on Monday 23 June, which sent the New York and London benchmarks to 326.55 cents and $3,904 respectively.
This surge was brought about by weather news from Brazil, where the arrival of the first cold front of the austral winter had raised the risk of frost in some areas of Minas Gerais and São Paulo. However, the alarm was short-lived, with an equally rapid downward correction wiping out all the previous day’s gains by Tuesday 24 June.
New York thus plunged to 311.35 cents, losing almost 4.7% in a single day. In turn, London gave up 5.7% (-222 dollars), landing at 3,682 dollars.
The decline continued on Wednesday, 25 June: New York lost a further 685 points (-2.2%), ending the midweek session at 3,045 dollars.
London fell by 158 dollars (-4.3%), closing at the aforementioned low of 3,524 dollars. However, the trend reversed on Thursday under the influence of currency factors, with the dollar index falling to its lowest level in three and a half years and triggering the short covering.
The London contract appreciated more markedly, gaining 4 percent ($141) to reach $3,665. This was also due to a drop in certified stocks to five-week lows.
Conversely, New York’s appreciation was minimal (+0.4%), rising just 115 points to 305.65 cents.
The week ended on a downward trend for both markets: Arabica Ice fell by 0.6% to 303.75 cents (as mentioned at the beginning) and Ice Robusta fell slightly, by $4, to $3,661.
Ultimately, some frost actually occurred, in the early morning hours of Wednesday 25, in the municipalities of Nova Resende, Bom Jesus da Penha, Muzambinho, Monte Belo and JacuÃ, in southwest Minas Gerais. According to the president of the local coffee growers’ association, Suzana Santos, harvesting operations are well underway, but there are now fears that the phenomenon could adversely affect next year’s harvest (2026/27).
