Sunday 15 June 2025

Brazil’s new coffee crop drive prices to multi-month lows

Throughout the month, the main contract in New York never crossed the psychological threshold of $4, even in intraday highs. The monthly high was reached on 6 May, with 389.85 cents at the close. In London, the main contract lost 16.9%, ending the month at $4,463, down from $5,369 at the end of April. Since mid-month, closings prices have consistently remained below the $5,000 mark

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MILAN – Coffee futures markets hit new lows on Tuesday, 3 June. In New York, the July contract erased all of Monday’s gains to settle at 340.05 cents per pound – the lowest level for the main ICE Arabica contract in almost two months. In London, meanwhile, the most active contract for September delivery lost another $68, closing at $4,337 – a seven-month low.

Over the past month, coffee futures prices have fallen in both markets, with the decline being more pronounced for Robustas.

In New York, the July expiry contract fell by 14.5%, from 400.75 cents on 30 April to 342.45 cents on 30 May.

Throughout the month, the contract never crossed the psychological threshold of $4, even in intraday highs. The monthly high was reached on 6 May, with 389.85 cents at the close.

In London, the main contract lost 16.9%, ending the month at $4,463, down from $5,369 at the end of April. Since mid-month, closings prices have consistently remained below the $5,000 mark.

World exports of all forms of coffee declined by 5.5% to 11.43 million bags in April, down from 12.09 million bags in the same month last year, according to the latest ICO figures.

World coffee exports totalled 78.51 million during the first seven months of the current coffee year, which is a 3.5% decrease compared to the same period in 2023/24. In the last 12 months available (May 2024 to April 2025), world exports totalled 135.98 million bags, an increase of 2.6% compared to the previous 12 months.

This increase was entirely due to Arabica exports, which grew by 8% to reach 86.34 million, while Robusta shipments fell by 5.7% to 49.64 million bags.

Exports of Robusta coffee from Vietnam totalled 14.82 million bags during the first seven months of the coffee year. The Southeast Asian country accounts for around 47% of exports to consumer countries.

Indonesia, Asia’s second-largest Robusta producer, is forecast to export 6.5 million bags in the 2025/26 crop year (April–March). Meanwhile, exports from Uganda, Africa’s leading coffee exporter, are expected to reach 5.5 million bags in the 2025/26 coffee year.

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