Friday 08 December 2023

BRAZIL – Volcafe sees next year’s crop at 49.5 million bags

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Coffee futures prices fell yesterday to almost five-month lows following a new forecast from Volcafe on next year’s Brazil crop.

The Ice Futures Us benchmark contract for Arabica coffee lost 585 points to close at 171.85 cents a pound.
Liffe Robusta coffee futures for March hit a six-month low of $1,931 a tonne.

Volcafe pegs Brazil’s 2015/16 output at 49.5 million bags, up 2.5 million bags on year.

Following an “extensive” crop tour, the Swiss-based trader, which is part of commodities trader ED & F Man, said it expected a decent recovery in Arabica volumes from this year’s drought-hit levels.

Arabica production is seen at 33 million bags, or a 12% surge on year, while conillon crop is forecast to fall by 6% to 16.5 million bags.

Volcafe’s estimate is based on an extensive survey of more than 2,500 farms led over a month period, from early November to early December.

Volcafe’s estimate was one of the highest yet for the crop, for which FO Licht has pencilled in a 43 million bag harvest, while Rabobank has forecast a figure of 42m-47 million bags.

Ecom’s Brazil-based Interagricola unit remains the most optimistic forecaster, with an estimate made in September (before October’s drought) of 50m-53m bags.

Conab is expected to release its forth estimate for 2014/15 on Monday and its first estimate for next year’s crop on January 9th, 2015.

USDA “Coffee: World Markets and Trade” report with US Government official figures is to be issued on Friday 19 December.

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