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MILAN – Coffee production in Brazil is expected to increase slightly to 65 million bags in marketing year 2025/26 (July/June), according to the latest report from the US Department of Agriculture’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS), released yesterday, Monday 19 May. This estimate is roughly in line with those of most private-sector analysts, but is also over 9 million bags higher than the official estimate released by Conab a few weeks ago. US experts also revised the estimate for MY 2024/25 down to 64.7 million bags, from an official estimate of 66.4 million bags in the ‘Coffee: World Markets and Trade’ report released last December.
The 2024/25 Arabica crop is now estimated at 43.7 million bags (compared to 45.4 million in the December estimate), while the Robusta production estimate remains unchanged at 21 million bags.
Regarding the 2025/26 harvest, the report predicts a further fall in Arabica production to 40.9 million bags and a further rise in Robusta production to a new all-time high of 24.1 million bags.
Export of all forms of coffee will fall for the second consecutive year to 41.75 million bags, down from 44.25 million bags in 2024/25 and 46.75 million bags in 2023/24.
Green coffee exports will drop from 40.5 million this year to 38 million in 2025/26. Exports of soluble coffee and roasted coffee will remain unchanged at 3.7 million and 50,000 bags respectively. Ending stocks are expected to fall to just 640,000 bags in June 2025 before rising again to 1,685 bags in June 2026.
“The outlook for the 2025/26 harvest started strong due to a consistent pattern of favourable weather. This was welcomed after four years of severe climatic impacts that hindered Brazilian coffee production and prevented plants from recovering. However, shortly after, Brazilian Arabica coffee crops in several of the main producing areas faced severe drought and extremely high temperatures.
The adverse weather conditions continued into late 2024 and early 2025 and are expected to impact the 2025/26 harvest. However, the full effects of this influence will only be measurable in the upcoming marketing year,” says the report.
“The decline in Arabica coffee production is attributed to inclement weather throughout 2024, which created challenges for the development of Arabica coffee. Specifically, Minas Gerais, the leading coffee-producing state in Brazil, faced periods of drought, irregular rainfall, and elevated temperatures. Many regions in Brazil are also experiencing a negative year in the coffee biennial cycle this year.
Robusta production for MY 2025/26 is projected at 24.1 million bags, 15 percent higher than the 21 million bags projected for the 2024/25 harvest. The increase in robusta production is primarily attributed to favorable weather conditions, which led to effective flowering and an ample quantity of cherries, especially in Espírito Santo and Bahia, despite the climatic challenges that impacted production in Rondônia.
Post sets its forecast for Brazil’s total domestic coffee consumption for MY 2025/26 (July-June) at 22.28 million coffee bags (21.3 million bags of roast/ground and 980,000 bags of soluble coffee). Inflation and high retail prices of coffee have continued to limit consumption growth in the country, despite the importance of the commodity for Brazilian consumers.
Post sets its forecast for total coffee exports for MY 2025/26 (July-June) at 41.75 million 60 kg bags, down 5.6 percent from MY 2024/25 exports. This decline is primarily attributed to expectations of lower production during Brazil’s upcoming coffee season, along with a recovery in exports from key producers like Vietnam and Indonesia, who are regaining their share of the international market after experiencing low harvests.
The MY 2024/25 exports are estimated at 44.25 million 60 kg bags, reflecting a 5 percent drop compared to the previous season. Although exports at the beginning of the 2024/25 season were strong due to high sale prices, there was a sharp decline in shipments during the first quarter of 2025, which can be attributed to limited supplies.
During the nine-month of the 2024/25 harvest, from July 2024 to March 2025, Brazil exported 36.88 million bags of coffee, marking a 5 percent increase compared to the same period in the 2023/24 season. However, in the first quarter of 2025, coffee exports fell by 11 percent compared to the same timeframe in 2024, with a total of 10.70 million bags shipped between January and March 2025. Despite this drop in volume, foreign exchange revenue increased significantly, rising by 54 percent during that period to reach $3.887 billion.
The decrease in shipment volume is due to a reduction in production for 2024, which has led to lower stock availability, as well as ongoing logistical challenges at Brazilian ports. On the other hand, the increase in foreign exchange revenue can be attributed to high prices in the international market. This situation is expected to fluctuate in the future, influenced by new trade policies among major global economies and coffee producers.
Post contacts have suggested the new tariff regime implemented by the United States may create opportunities for Brazilian coffee exporters, particularly for robusta exports. Brazil faces a tariff of 10 percent, while its competitors, like Vietnam and Indonesia, face much higher rates of 46 percent and 32 percent, respectively. Although the U.S. primarily purchases Arabica coffee, it also incorporates robusta in its blends. Regarding Arabica, Colombia, Brazil’s largest competitor, is also subject to a 10 percent tariff, which does not provide Brazil with any competitive advantage.
Data from the Brazilian Ministry of Development, Industry, Trade and Services (MDIC) indicates that in 2024, the United States was the destination for 15 percent of the total volume of coffee exported from Brazil, representing a 34 percent increase from the previous year. Germany followed as the second-largest destination, accounting for 14 percent of Brazilian coffee exports, followed by Italy (7%), Belgium (6%), and Japan (6%).
Brazil’s coffee sector progressed significantly in adopting green practices to ensure compliance with international regulations, particularly as they relate to exports to Europe. One key regulation is the European Union Deforestation Regulation (EUDR). According to Brazilian Serasa Experian, 97 percent of coffee producers in Brazil adhere to Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) practices. Additionally, around 75 percent of the country’s coffee production is assessed using risk assessment tools developed by the company.”
