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MILAN – Safras&Mercado has revised its forecast for Brazil ’s coffee production. After lowering its estimates last year, the authoritative Brazilian analyst has now revised upwards its forecasts for the 2025/26 crop, which is about to begin for Robustas. The most significant revision relates to Arabica production, which was initially estimated at 38.35 million bags, about 15 % less than last year.
The impression now is that production will still be down, but less than initially feared’ says Gil Barabach, an analyst at S&M. ‘We’re going to be at 40 million, maybe a little more,’ he said.
The previous estimate was made at the end of last year, at a time of great pessimism due to the prolonged drought between April and October, which partly hindered the flowering.
Expectations improved with the rains in January and February, but then came the drought in March, accompanied by high temperatures, which made everyone anxious again. However, the recent return of rain has restored confidence among growers and led to slightly more optimistic forecasts.
The outlook for the Robusta is further improved. Back in December, S&M had forecast a 17% increase in the crop to 24.1 million, but now the analyst does not rule out that Brazil’s production could reach 25-26 million.
The average of these figures suggests a total crop (Arabica+Robusta) of 65 million bags, above the average of current market estimates of 62.5 million.
In the last 12 months (Cecafé data), Brazil exported 49.2 million bags of coffee in all forms, of which almost 45 million were green coffee (Arabica: 36.8 million; Robusta: 8.2 million). Domestic consumption is around 22 million bags.
S&M’s more positive outlook for Brazil does not seem to have affected the markets, which continued to recover yesterday, Wednesday 16 April.
In New York, the contract for July delivery gained a further 1.8% to close at 373.80 cents, its highest level in a week and a half.
In London, the most traded contract (July) rose slightly (+$39) to settle at $5,379, its highest level in two and a half weeks.
