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BRAZIL – Late rains guarantee blossoming, but 15/16 crop might be limited, says CEPEA

Cepea

After a long period of dry weather, recent rains have boosted the flower opening in almost all coffee producing regions in Brazil.

From now onwards, players expect that the volume of rains is enough for the settlement of future coffee beans.

Nonetheless, since the 2015/16 season is of negative biennial cycle and the dry weather has already impacted crops, agents expect, for the time being, that the production will be lower than the productive potential.

Up until now, only Zona da Mata (Minas Gerais) has not registered blossoming yet. However, there are rain forecasts, according to Somar Meteorologia, which can help to open first flowers.

In Cerrado Mineiro, two blossoming were observed: the first one in the second fortnight of September and the other in late October. Due to the time gap among the blossoming, players say that the ripening might be unequal, causing also a certain delay in the next year’s harvesting.

As for Mogiana region (São Paulo), players surveyed by Cepea say that only one small and heterogeneous blossoming has occurred. Intense rains are expected to fall and result in good blossoming.

In southern Minas Gerais and Garça (SP), the first blossoming was observed in late October. In the MG region, this period represents a relative delay, but, in Garça, where the season is later compared to other regions, flowers were already expected for that period.

Considering robusta crops in Espírito Santo, players say that the flower opening has already occurred in a positive way in practically all coffee crops in July and September. Therefore, a good crop is expected.

In the arabica market in Brazil, although prices have advanced, the liquidity is low. The CEPEA/ESALQ Index for arabica coffee, type 6, was 478.06 BRL (184.29 dollars) per 60-kilo bag on November 14, moving up 8% in relation to October 31.

In regard of robusta, on November 14, the CEPEA/ESALQ Index for the robusta coffee type 6 averaged 279.71 BRL (107.83 dollars) per 60-kilo bag, upping 6.5% in the partial of November.