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BRAZIL – GAIN Report revises output estimate up to 51.2 million bags

The Agricultural Trade Office Sao Paulo (ATO) revised Brazilian coffee production estimate for marketing year (MY) 2014/15 (July-June) to 51.2 million 60-kg bags, green equivalent, up 3 percent compared to previous figure.

This is due to better than expected agricultural yields in growing areas such as center-western Minas Gerais, Sao Paulo and Espirito Santo. Arabica production is estimated at 34.2 million bags, whereas Robusta output is estimated at 17 million bags.

Harvest was completed in September and according to industry sources, beans size is significantly worse than previous year. However, the overall coffee cup quality for 2014 crop is better than 2013. Area harvested and tree inventory estimates are unchanged.

In September 2014, the Brazilian government (GOB), through the National Supply Company (CONAB) of the Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Supply (MAPA), released the third official coffee production estimate for MY 2014/15.

As reported by CONAB, coffee production is estimated at 45.14 million bags (32.11 million bags for Arabica and 13.03 million for Robusta coffee), up 570,000 bags from the previous estimate in May.

The September 2014 coffee production estimate for MY 2014/15 released by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) shows the production of 2.707 million metric tons of coffee, or 45.12 million 60-kg bags (32.28 million bags for Arabica and 12.84 million for Robusta coffee), a 7 percent drop vis-à-vis MY 2013/14 (48.68 million bags). No official forecast has been announced for MY 2015/16.