MILAN – The Arabica rally shows no sign of stopping as the Robustas take a breather. Yesterday, Thursday 6 February 2025, new record-highs were set on the New York market. The March contract gained 620 points (+1.6%) to close at 403.95 cents, after reaching an intraday high of 411.25 cents during trading.
Meanwhile, certified stocks rose slightly to 854,553 bags, mainly from Brazil (540,825 bags), Peru (91,513 bags), Nicaragua (79,907 bags) and Honduras (42,591 bags).
In London, the May contract closed unchanged from the previous day at USD 5,646, while farther contracts all posted gains. The overall picture remains very mixed.
“The ongoing supply tightness that has kept prices elevated is being further exacerbated by logistical challenges,” said Tomas Araujo, a trading associate at StoneX, in an interview with Bloomberg. “An already difficult situation is getting worse by geopolitical tensions and the looming threat of tariffs, prompting shippers of all type of goods to expedite bookings out of affected trade zones.”
A small uptick in open interest recently and an increase in commercials longs — a proxy for roasters — also indicate that roasters are building hedges after sitting on the sidelines in hopes of prices falling, says Bloomberg.
With the first notice day of the March contract approaching (on 20 February) and market participant rolling over their contracts to further-out months, the situation is likely to become even more tense and volatile.
Meanwhile, global exports are slowing down. According to data contained in Ico’s Coffee Market Report – released yesterday afternoon – total exports of all forms of coffee fell by 0.8% to 32.251 million bags in the last quarter of 2024, from 32.524 million in the same period of 2023.
Arabica shipments increased by 5.1% to 21.129 million, driven by Colombian Milds (+22.5%) and Brazilian Naturals (+4.2%), while Other Milds fell by 4.5%. Robusta exports fell sharply (-10.4%).
The decline is entirely due to the negative trend recorded in December. In the last month of the year, world exports were heavily down (-12.4%) to 10.727 million bags, compared with 12.25 million in December 2024.
Arabica exports fell by 6.3% to 6.576 million. Brazilian Naturals (-14%) and Other Milds (-11.2%) were also down.
Only Colombian Milds bucked the trend, growing by 29.6%. Robusta shipments fell by 20.7% to 4.151 million.
Looking at the main origins, Brazil recorded the first negative growth in 16 months, with exports last falling in September 2023.
Brazilian exports totalled 3.83 million, down 7.4%. Vietnam’s shipments fell by 39.5% to 2.14 million.
Colombia, on the other hand, recorded its 14th consecutive increase, up 22.1%, bringing its December exports to 1.31 million.
As already reported, the monthly average of the ICO Composite Indicator Price rose by 3.5% to 310.12 cents. The largest increases were recorded for the New York indicator (+3.8%) for Brazilian Naturals.
