CIMBALI
Friday 07 February 2025
  • La Cimbali

Arabica coffee futures up for the 9th straight session at new record highs, London ends sharply down

Despite improved weather conditions in the main Brazilian areas, with the return of rain, the market is still anticipating a drop in Arabica production for the next crop in 2025/26. There are also fears of a reduction in the availability of Brazilian coffees in the early months of this year. As much as 82% of the 2024/25 Arabica crop and 91% of the Conilon crop have already been marketed, according to estimates

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MILAN – Arabica coffee futures started the week with another upward session – the ninth in a row – while Robusta futures experienced a sharp correction into negative territory, although still at very high levels. Yesterday, Monday 3rd February, New York flew to new highs, with the main contract (March) closing above the $3.80 mark for the first time, at 380.90 cents (high 388.95 cents), up a further 305 points (+0.74%).

London, as mentioned above, saw heavy liquidation driven by a rally in the dollar index. The first and second position lost $184 (-3.2%) and $174 settling at $5,534 and $5,520 respectively.

Despite improved weather conditions in the main Brazilian areas, with the return of rain, the market is still anticipating a drop in Arabica production for the next crop in 2025/26.

There are also fears of a reduction in the availability of Brazilian coffees in the early months of this year. As much as 82% of the 2024/25 Arabica crop and 91% of the Conilon crop have already been marketed, according to estimates.

Laleska Moda – an analyst at Hedgepoint Global Markets – expects the 2025/26 harvest to be even higher than in 2024/25, with the decline in Arabicas more than offset by a further recovery in Robusta production.

In more detail, Hedgepoint estimates (source: Hedgepoint Global Markets via Notícias Agrícolas) the 2024/25 crop at 63.4 million bags, of which 43.3 million are Arabica coffee and 20.1 million Robusta. For 2025/26, it expects an Arabica crop of 41.1 million (-4.9%) and a Robusta crop of 23 million bags (+14.3%) for a total production of 64.1 million.

Initial stocks of Arabica will fall sharply (-20.5%) to 9.8 million, while those of Robusta will increase by more than a third (+33.8%), to 13.1 million. Exports will drop slightly from 48.4 million (37 million Arabica and 11.4 million robusta) in 2024/25 to 48.1 million (35.7 million Arabica and 12.4 million robusta) in 2025/26.

New updated figures from the Ministry of Agriculture in Hanoi confirm that Vietnam exported 22.5 million bags of coffee in 2024, worth a record US$5.62 billion. While the volume of exports fell by 17.1%, the value increased by 32.5% and was almost double that of 2019.

Figures for January 2025 are slightly behind the usual timeframe due to the Lunar New Year holiday.

Meanwhile, data from the Indonesian government shows that the island of Sumatra exported 349,118 bags of Robusta coffee in December, an increase of 345% on the same month last year.

This brings the total for the first nine months of 2024/25 to 2,531,353 bags: 34.13% more than the same period in 2023/24.

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