MILAN – Another day of bullishness on the coffee futures markets. In New York yesterday, Tuesday 4th February, the ICE Arabica March contract approached the $3.90 mark (daily high of 389.90 cents), but then the momentum faded and the day closed at 383.35 cents, still slightly up from Monday (+0.6%). For Arabica futures, this was the tenth consecutive session in positive territory.
London coffee futures also rebounded after two consecutive sessions in the red. March was up $24 and May $28. The two contracts closed at $5,558 and $5,548 respectively.
According to analysts, tensions in the markets are increasing as roasters in major consuming countries try to buy as much as possible to replenish their stocks, clashing with a producers’ reluctance to sell.
Uncertainty about the weather in producing countries, particularly Brazil, is also contributing to market turbulence. But let’s take now a quick look at the most recent trends in Ico indicators.
In January, the monthly average of the composite indicator of the Internationa Coffee Organization rose above the $3 per pound mark to settle at 310.12 cents: 3.5% higher than in December. The most significant increases were seen in Brazilian Naturals (+3.7%) and Robustas (+3.6%).
This was followed by Other Milds (+3.2%) and Colombians Milds (+3.3%). The monthly average for January 2025 was 75.8% higher than the 176.41 cents average for January 2024.
Compared to January 2024, the coffee group that appreciated the most was Brazilian Naturals (+89.1%), which rose from 179.32 to 339.18 cents per pound. This was followed by Other Milds (+74.4%), from 203.30 to 354.47 cents, and Colombian Milds (++71.2%), from 205.62 to 351.93 cents.
The Robusta indicator was up by 65.2%, from 148.47 to 245.29 cents. Over the past month, the daily average fluctuated between a low of 294.51 cents on 8 January and a high of 342.53 cents on 31 January.
The rally continued this week with another high of 343 cents on 3rd February. At the time of writing, data for the 4th February is not yet available.
