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MILAN – The Arabica rally in the coffee futures markets continued: the Ice Arabica contract for delivery gained 9.4% in three sessions, closing yesterday, Thursday 24 April 2025, at 398.80 cents, its highest level in four weeks. London (July) gained 2.8 per cent this week, closing yesterday at $5,427, its highest level in almost a month.
The falling dollar helped push up the prices of most commodities, including coffee. Markets continue to be affected by the weather situation in Brazil, where Somar Meteorology is forecasting little rain until next week.
Following Safras & Mercado and Rabobank, Hedgepoint also released an updated estimate of the upcoming Brazilian crop this week. The analyst expects production to reach a total of 63.8 million in 2025/26, up 0.6% from 2024/25.
On the downside, Arabica production is expected to fall by 8.4% to 39.6 million bags due to low rainfall during the development of the crop.
On the other hand, the forecast for the next Robusta crop is very optimistic: Hedgepoint has raised its February estimate by 1.7 million bags to 24.2 million, a 20% increase over 2024/25.
On the export side, Hedgepoint forecasts an 8.1% decline in Arabica exports to 34.1 million, offset by an 11.1% increase in Robusta exports to 12.2 million.
According to Cecafé, Brazil’s exports of green coffee in the partial of the 2024/25 season (from July 2024 to March2025) totalled 33.65 million bags, a record for the period.
